Is the Second Demographic Transition a useful framework for understanding the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia at the beginning of the 21st century?

Keywords: South-East Europe, second demographic transition, sub-national fertility patterns, spatial autocorrelation, Serbia

Abstract

Gaps in comprehension of demographic change in the region of ex-Yugoslavia after 1990, caused by a lack of reliable data series, frequent change of borders, and distinctive historical and cultural tradition in comparison to other post-communist societies, motivated us to contribute to the understanding of the spatial diffusion of recent profound fertility changes in South-Eastern Europe. We analysed changes in the spatial pattern and distribution of typical fertility indicators of the second demographic transition at the sub-national level in Serbia in order to find out whether these demographic shifts could be interpreted to be similar to those in Central and Eastern Europe. We found that differences in economic, historical, and cultural development between sub-regions of the country strongly affect spatial patterns of fertility change. Also, this paper suggests that the sub- regions forerunners of the first demographic transition could be considered as the cores of diffusion for the  second demographic transition.

Author Biography

Vladimir Nikitović, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia

first author

Published
2019-09-20
How to Cite
Nikitović, V., Arsenović, D., Sekulić, A., & Bajat, B. (2019). Is the Second Demographic Transition a useful framework for understanding the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia at the beginning of the 21st century?. AUC Geographica. https://doi.org/10.14712/23361980.2019.14
Section
Original Articles